Saturday, 18 February 2017

February 18, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

February  18, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).


U.S. equities closed mixed on Friday, but managed another record close, while investors kept an eye on France's presidential election. Investors right now continue to shrug off almost all bearish news and continue buying stocks

Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be starting another long ride up.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
A one brick pull back and now two new up!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is with the market. Bullish!

207 VIX
Fear is way down, in fact to all time new levels.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 76% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  up from last week when it was 70%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon. Notice loss of TRIX momentum.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Wow new interest in tech! Looks bullish.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Aggressive is back in style. Perhaps peaking but who knows.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer stalls? Bullish 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and flatline. 

309 Sectors
Nasdaq zooms ahead, banks stall.

311 Nations
not much here

313 Major sectors
not much here -- all about the USA.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
The Indonesian government is still among a handful of nations, along with Somalia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, that has yet to ratify the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.



Since 2000 smokers in Indonesia have grown from 40 million to 70 million. The worlds fastest growing tobacco market has no limits on advertising and stores sell Marlboro cigarettes for pennies a piece often in stores next to schools. Marlboro through its lobby stooge groups is hyping smoking as a human right and the U.S. government still treats tobacco as a key American Interest product and so pushes tiny nations to accept the deadly habit in trade for favours and considerations.

What Works Now

NASDAQ Pharma companies... just look at Sage Therapeutics (Ticker:SAGE)



What I Think
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett


With the current fire lit under the Equities markets and no fire truck in sight, it seems that everyone is unabashedly bullish. Various breadth indicators including the Net New Highs, the Advance Decline lines, the McClellan Summation Indexes, the Volume Summation Indexes, Bullish Percent Indexes, and the Percent of stocks above the 200 DMA are all screamingly bullish. While the market soars, these charts continue to support the data. 

Of course there will be an end to this someday, but you can never say how soon. For now be long, be aggressive and like last week, continue to reap rewards. It is a bull market expect bullish outcomes.



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


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Saturday, 11 February 2017

February 11, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

February  11, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Economically-sensitive industrial metals are rising again, along with stocks tied to them. The price of copper is up 3.5% Friday to the highest level in nearly two years. So are copper shares. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) resuming its uptrend. The COPX is now trading at the highest level since the second half of 2014. The price of iron ore (which is used in the making of steel) is also surging in China to the highest level in two years. So are stocks tied to both commodities. Of course this is causing a rally in Canadain stocks. 


Here is what our charts say:





101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be starting another long ride up.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
The big march forward, 11 bricks up !

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is back with the market. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down, in fact to all time new levels.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 70% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  up from last week when it was 65%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Looks like it might get more stable. for now consolidation. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
Aggressive is back in style. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer bouncing? Bullish 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Emerging markets perk up. 

313 Major sectors
Emerging Markets strong.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
For years, their existence has been debated: elusive electrical discharges in the upper atmosphere that sport names such as red sprites, blue jets, pixies and elves. Reported by pilots, they are difficult to study as they occur above thunderstorms. ESA astronaut Andreas Mogensen during his mission on the International Space Station in 2015 was asked to take pictures over thunderstorms with the most sensitive camera on the orbiting outpost to look for these brief features. Denmark’s National Space Institute has now published the results, confirming many kilometre-wide blue flashes around 18 km altitude, including a pulsating blue jet reaching 40 km. This image is a still from a video recorded by Andreas as he flew over the Bay of Bengal at 28 800 km/h on the Station shows the electrical phenomena clearly – a first of its kind.




What Works Now

Red Lobster and Olive Garden (Ticker: DRI)


Growth ETF
(Ticker:IJK)


What I Think

I think we are in bull market and we are just starting an agressive leg up that I expect to run in spurts until May. I would buy growth etfs (such as IJK shown above) tech and consumer stocks. Also look at Canadain markets including pipelines and banks.




You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Sunday, 5 February 2017

February 04, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

February  04, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

What started off as a soft week for stocks ended on a strong note. Friday's gain was enough to keep stock indexes basically flat for the entire week. But there was some improvement on the charts. Also encouraging was the fact that financials led Friday's rally. So did small caps and transports.

Here is what our charts say:





101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be starting another long ride up.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
The big march forward, 11 bricks up !

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is back with the market. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down, in fact to all time new levels.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 65% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  down a tad down from last week when it was 69%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Looks like it might get more stable. for now consolidation. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
Aggressive is back in style. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Emerging markets perk up. 

313 Major sectors
Emerging Markets strong.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting

With some broad market indexes making record highs, one would think that total mutual fund assets would be following suit. But no. As of the end of December Total Stock Mutual Fund Assets were still below the record highs set in 2015, and are failing to confirm record price highs. (These data are collected by the Investment Company Institute and are published a month in arrears. January's totals won't be available until the end of this month.) Don't panic yet but with no new profesional money there often is am impending correction. 





Super Bowl
Tomorow is Superbowl Sunday. Some investors believe the outcome of the Super Bowl, the final game of the U.S. NFL football season, and how stock prices behave for the rest of the year are connected. Interestingly, this relationship does hold up under statistical scrutiny. 

However, you must better understand what such a statistical outcome means before making financial decisions based on a football game. The so-called "Super Bowl Halo Effect" is a statistical oddity. Historically, the Dow Jones industrial average is more likely to decline over the course of the full year after which the AFC team wins the championship. When the NFC team is crowned, the Dow is more likely to finish the year higher. This basic rule has held 80 percent of the time thus far. Because the Super Bowl occurs within the first two months of the year, investors who wish to bet on this halo effect have ample time to buy or sell based on the game's outcome.


What Works Now

Arconic is a spinoff of Alcoa and makes percision aluminum products for aerospace and automobiles. Insiders are buying and the firm beat revenue guidance by 60%. (ticker:ARNC)



What I Think

I think this is a bull market and I have been positive after the last pull back and that makes me very happy. The Bull Bear lines kept you on the right side of the trade you should be happy too. 

Friday had strong results for fiancials and it looks like a gap up in to a new range. Very bullish.

Be long increase your speculative holdings, play high growth. Febuary is historicly a great month for stocks. Everything looks great. 










You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Saturday, 28 January 2017

January 28, 2017 – Weeken Market Comment

January 28, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

After weeks of close calls, the Dow made history on Wednesday by blowing past that key level for the first time ever. The Dow climbed 156 points to 20,069 and was joined in record territory by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  The historic milestone leaves the Dow up more than 1,700 points since President Donald Trump's victory in November. The achievement is evidence of how optimistic investors have become about the prospects for the U.S. economy.

Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
The big march forward, 12 bricks up !

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is less happy. But a day or two does not make a trend. Yes despite sideways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 69% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  down a tad from last week when it was 71%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Looks like it might get more stable.  

303 Aggressive Defensive
Peaking might be getting defensive soon.. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold. World trade looks better with British American trade deal talk.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
According to theAtlas.com Americans are importing more veggies. You could hope this just means there is an increase in salad consumption, but I think it has more to do with less people interested in farming. As global standards of living increase the appeal of farming decreases. Also with less migrant labour in the US farming basic commodities becomes impractical. 


Time Crystals

Check out this amazing discovery of a new kind of matter, in ScienceAlert.


What Works Now

Short Bonds, the TBT ETF is an easy way to short US treasuries. 



What I Think

So once again despite record low VIX readings and all the rest the market roared ahead with the DOW in new record territory. If you were following what I did last week you stayed long because this is a bull market. 

So it is DOW 20,000 and the white house has a new resident. Many are wondering if there is any news next to carry this market. 


So I am now a week in Belize, and as I sip coffee at my desk I wonder should I write more about the markets or go enjoy the sun..... see ya next week :)






You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Sunday, 22 January 2017

January 21, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 21, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well as you know I could not get enough bandwidth last week to post my comments but nothing much happened anyway. The market is in a sideways trading range. However next week might be much more interesting...



Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
End of the big march forward, 12 bircks up and one new black brick retreat. BEARISH!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite sidways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 71% of stocks are above their 50day MA,  down from last week when it was 77%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
ALERT: Nasdaq breath decline... don't panic but this is not a good sign. Notice the green is way below red, as only the top hot stocks are still in play. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
Sideways. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
The number of shorts on the VIX is near a record. When everyone bets on one crowded trade that is generaly trouble. In this case the pros are betting on an ever rising stock market. This bull run is 8 years long, so it is a bit concerning when no one sees any chance of it ending. 



What Works Now

Gold



What I Think

Well I think the Trump rally has run its course and consloidation shows we are ready for a rest. However, the old axiom "Buy the roumor, sell the news" comes to mind and now that Mr. Trump is the new "leader of the free world" I expect Monday to be profit taking time. 

You will note only one red ! this week and it is the Nasdaq breadth... this can be a way early signal so dont panic, but it is concerning when money moves to defense and that is what this graph signals. Also notice gold is accumulating. 

However, we are in a bull market, and always expect bullish outcomes. That means as we have for weeks, be defensive not short or flat. Raise stops, sell your high flyers, be conservative. 



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here