Sunday, 22 January 2017

January 21, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 21, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well as you know I could not get enough bandwidth last week to post my comments but nothing much happened anyway. The market is in a sideways trading range. However next week might be much more interesting...



Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
End of the big march forward, 12 bircks up and one new black brick retreat. BEARISH!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite sidways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 71% of stocks are above their 50day MA,  down from last week when it was 77%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
ALERT: Nasdaq breath decline... don't panic but this is not a good sign. Notice the green is way below red, as only the top hot stocks are still in play. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
Sideways. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
The number of shorts on the VIX is near a record. When everyone bets on one crowded trade that is generaly trouble. In this case the pros are betting on an ever rising stock market. This bull run is 8 years long, so it is a bit concerning when no one sees any chance of it ending. 



What Works Now

Gold



What I Think

Well I think the Trump rally has run its course and consloidation shows we are ready for a rest. However, the old axiom "Buy the roumor, sell the news" comes to mind and now that Mr. Trump is the new "leader of the free world" I expect Monday to be profit taking time. 

You will note only one red ! this week and it is the Nasdaq breadth... this can be a way early signal so dont panic, but it is concerning when money moves to defense and that is what this graph signals. Also notice gold is accumulating. 

However, we are in a bull market, and always expect bullish outcomes. That means as we have for weeks, be defensive not short or flat. Raise stops, sell your high flyers, be conservative. 



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Friday, 6 January 2017

January 07, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 07, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled on Thursday, dropping more than 8 basis points to close at 2.37% - its lowest daily close since December 7th's 2.35% finish.  The sudden interest in treasuries could have been the result of a weaker-than-expected monthly ADP employment report, or perhaps the awful retail news from both Kohls (KSS) and Macy's (M).  Then come Friday the market roared ahead in the final hours - the lesson here, bull market expect bullish outcomes.


Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Beginning to be disturbing -- manufacturing is lagging.  Could this be the first canary in a coal mine signal?

115 Renko
Market is strong lucky 12 white bricks! You seldom see a run this long, but who knows how far this bull can run. Notice how it is obvious on a Renko chart. SUPER BULLISH!
!
203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite year end profit taking the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down... Notice the last two weeks of September, when the bears got trounced by Trump. For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish. 2016 was a mostly up market years.

!
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 81% of stocks are above their 50day MA, way up from last week when it was 66%. Bullish.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq breadth stalls.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Very Aggressive. Bullish upswing for new year.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds up. Consumer deflating? Bearish

307 Bond Direction
Bonds look better.
!
309 Sectors
Ahh financials fade defensives lead and tech too? Bizzar.

311 Nations
Third world perks up.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
Why sugar is killing you:



 

What Works Now

I have been very worried about US manufacturing, and happy to see a good run on an auto stock since last fall. Fiat Chrysler (Ticker:FCAU)




A Reader Asked
A reader of this blog told me they really don't want to read all this stuff, please pick out a few stocks for them. My only advise to others is simple, only use money you can risk and purchase broad market indexes like the S & P 500 (Ticker:SPY) when the bull bear lines say it is a bull market, sell when it is not.  Outside of that, I have no targeted advice for anyone


I don't want to manage your money, I am busy managing mine. If I ever want to be a money manager there is a few very generous offers, at a few major investment banks in Toronto, New York and London that I can take anytime. Unlike this person, they will pay very well for my advice. I also know I could start a hedge fund and listen to clients belly ache on months that I miss my performance, or run like rats every downturn, but I don't need the grief. This blog is not advise, it is my own market analysis for me, read the first paragraph above You are welcome to look here and see what I do, otherwise, I just really don't care. 

If you are busy, or don't understand this stuff, or just want someone to manage your money -- there are rafts of these people and they are not hard to find, go talk to them.



What I Think
Well like I said last week, it looked a lot like tax selling end of year and the bull would continue once the year flipped over. So it goes. But I also said this might well be the last year of the bull, the big factor will be China, I am sure you all read my post on China and what the issue is. 


2016 was a near record year for my portfolio performance, I now need to spend a bit of that to help the global economy. I am in Cuba next weekend, as I work my way to my winter home in Belize.  I expect to have not enough internet connectivity to post next week... you are on you own. 





You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here




Saturday, 31 December 2016

December 31, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

December 31, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Despite a lackluster day in the stock market, the Dow finished 2016 up 13.42 percent, while the S&P 500 narrowly missed out on ending the year with double-digit gains. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, wrapped up 2016 with a net gain of 7.5 percent. The Dow ended the day down 57.18 points at 19,762. It had been on pace to end the year 14 percent higher, but instead finished only 13.42 percent higher after its first down week since the election. The S&P fell about 10 points, or about half a percent, on Friday, after ending Thursday down less than a point at 2,249. In order to gain 10 percent for the year, the index had to close at 2,248.33, but it finished at 2,238.83. The index now has four positive years in the past five. The Nasdaq closed 48.97 points lower on Friday, down 0.9 percent. Still, it notched its fifth positive year in a row for the first time since its five-year streak that ended in 2007.
Lets see what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.
!
107 Industrial Production
Beginning to be disturbing -- manufacturing is lagging.  Could this be the first canary in a coal mine signal?

115 Renko
Market is strong lucky 13 white bricks! You seldom see a run this long, but who knows how far this bull can run. Notice how it is obvious on a Renko chart. SUPER BULLISH!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite year end profit taking the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is up a bit... but will this fade with new positions in 2017. Notice the last two weeks of September, when the bears got trounced by Trump. For now Neutral

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish. 2016 was a mostly up market years.

!
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 66% of stocks are above their 50day MA, down from last week when it was 74%. Bearish.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq breadth stalls. NASTY
!
303 Aggressive Defensive
Very defensive. Bearish

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds up. Consumer deflating? Bearish

307 Bond Direction
Bonds look better.

309 Sectors
It all sucks except for banks.

311 Nations
USA bets are off.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.




What I Find Interesting


Follow the money
This chart shows all the worlds Billionaires and where they got the money from. This chart is courtesy of the good folks at HowMuch.net How Much is a cost information website.


Isagenix 
Isagenix is an MLM scam operating in 12 countries and selling products that claim to make you wealthy and are good for your health, in fact neither is true. Read more in my Thoughts Blog
http://cme4pif-thoughts.blogspot.ca/2016/12/isagenix-rant.html?view=sidebar

France Underconsumes
In 2005, the real GDP per capita in France was only 67 percent that of the United States, and real consumption per capita (a more-direct measure of living standards) was only 60 percent as high, making it appear Americans were economically much better off than the French on average. However, that comparison omits other relevant factors; leisure time, life expectancy, and economic inequality. The French take long vacations and retire earlier, so typically work fewer hours; they enjoy a higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the U.S.), presumably reflecting advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like. Hmmm consume less and live longer... who knew? Also income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed there than in the U.S. Because of these mitigating differences, comparing France’s per capita GDP or consumption with the U.S.’s overstates the gap in economic welfare, or at least miss the point, there is a point of simply over-consumption.


You Have A Second Brain
Research shows that "gut" feeling you have might really be as important as the feelings you have in your brain. Click below to play this video, amazing stuff!
 



What Works Now


Canada
Canadian equities rose 18 percent in 2016, the biggest increase since 2009. The index now sits less than 3 percent from a record reached in September 2014. The S&P/TSX’s world-beating advance marks a reversal for the index, which slipped 11 percent in 2015 for its worst annual decline since 2008.

Safety and Commodities
The safety plays are all getting a recent boost, the only question is, is it a new trend or a "fast money" reaction to a pull back.
Gold:

Oil:

Bonds:


 

What I Think
When we look back on 2016. There were lots of great buying opportunities. After years of commodities being routed, it was a year for commodities to create fantastic returns. In 2013 I wrote "The New Momentum" that showed that high oil prices are a kind of tax on the economy. I notice today the new commodity rush as we begin 2017 is focused on safety assets, Oil, Gold and Bonds (see above) yet general commodities like coco and coffee are not moving in fact they are depressed. This is not a sign of global demand, its a sign of concern. We have had a bull market since spring of 2009, that's a near record 8 year run(third best ever), this coming year might be a great time to be prudent and not buy in to the hype


That is not to say that the end of year pull back we saw this week was anything more than tax selling. I would not be surprised to see next week down or up, but I do think next week will set a tone for the first quarter of 2017. As I said before I am long but cautious.  But long term I would be amazed if this bull continued through all of 2017. So strap in and lets see what the new years baby has for us!



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here