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Showing posts from July, 2013

Market Comment July 29 2013

July 29 2013 – Ok this is a little late but it is summer and boy the weather has been primo for sailing so my mind is elsewhere. Besides I left you in the right space with my July 20 comment. The market is overheated and taking a breather. If you are in big defensive stocks enjoy your dividends. If you are playing high flyers you should have pulled in your horns last week. Tisk tisk. 
Rotation is heading in to the safety end of the market with utilities and big dividend stocks like Johnson and Johnson hitting new highs.

(as always click any graphic to enlarge) All my indicators form July 20th continue to get softer and it is clear that nobody wants to take this market higher this week with an upcoming FOMC meeting. Here is my famous green arrows chart. It says be cautious, don't open new positions here, but stay long. 

TBT pulled back on dovish statements from the fed, the smart money bought that dip, it continues it march higher.

For My Next Trick -- Super Skyscraper in 10 Mon…

July 20 2013 Weekend Market Comment

July 20, 2013 – My trader friends in London are dying in the heat wave and I am sure on the streets of Manhattan the pavement is radiating heat and that smell of years of trash left on the street corners is wafting over the city. There people stare in to window mounted Air Conditioners and pray the machine does not die. But here in the West Coast of Canada it is Sunny cloudless, 24C and nearly ideal weather it is all amazing. So get out on the patio and raise a glass of beer.   
If you have been following my trades your pockets a full of money – lets face it life is good. I predicted this bull market was coming in The New Momentum, and the world is pouring money into US equities, commodity markets are dead and bonds are toast -- just like it had to be.  This is the beginning of an American long-term secular bull market and the good news is going to be around for a while. In a word I am euphoric.  
The bad news is that euphoria is a bad sign. In this case we are probably a bit overbou…

July 14 2013 – Weekend Market Comment

July 14 2013 – Oh baby, how can you not smile? The markets continue to move higher this week and if you have been bullish on U.S. equities you had a nice ride this week. All my market indicators from last week just look a bit better this week. We have a nice low volume summer rally.

(as always click any graphic to enlarge)
Our trade in TBT still looks good, it has slipped a bit this week but this is a long-term play. Here is a highly entertaining video from Bloomberg on why the TBT trade has gone far better than I thought it would, or as the video says a “massive outflow” from bonds.  

Who followed me in to Canadian Pipeline Stocks a last week when I recommended them? Lets look at Enbridge this week up 3% since my recommendation.

Biotech and U.S. regional banks are doing well but a long dead category has come back to life, Insurance companies are having a nice rise, because of anticipated rising rates is boosting revenue potential. 

Look at stodgy, stuffy, old Prudential. In the cras…

Command and Control vs. Nature and Feedback

July 13, 2013 -- I am a great believer in natural self-balancing systems. The heart of natural systems is the feedback loop.  For example each year nature produces too many wildebeests, about a half million. These ugly second cousins of cattle find their numbers cut in half each year as they migrate across the Serengeti plane as a sort of thundering-heard-buffet for predators higher up the food chain.  In years with a bumper crop of wildebeests are followed by years with abundant predators. In years of drought animals herds, up and down the food chain, thin out. The system is robust, adaptable and unfortunately, like much of nature, brutal. A poet speaks of the circle of life -- but the reality is blood thirsty lions tear flesh from bones, and vast herds die of painful thirst or starvation.

Feedback loops are everywhere. They are in our thermostats keeping us comfortable; they (at least briefly) entertain us with toys like the little bird shown here -- that appears to drink randomly …