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Showing posts from September, 2013

Sept 28 2013 Weekend Market Comment

Sept 28 2013 – As I mentioned last week, despite other good market news, the party killer would be this week when the US government is bracing for a possible shutdown, as Republicans and Democrats in Congress remain deadlocked on a budget to continue its funding. Agencies have begun making contingency plans ahead of the 1 October deadline to pass a new funding resolution. The Senate has passed a bill to fund the government until 15 November. But House Republicans have said they refuse to approve the bill without a provision to strip funding from President Barack Obama's health law.
Now think about the market open this Monday, Asia has been opening weak for sometime now, next on comes Europe still digesting the new mess in Italy. The party of Italy's former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says all five of its ministers are resigning from the shaky coalition government. The development follows weeks of worsening relations between his party and Prime Minister Enrico Letta'…

Sept 21 2013 Weekend Market Comment

Sept 21 2013 – The  Federal Reserve had a wonderful opportunity to taper bond buying and start to take off the training wheels, the street was ready for it, the world expected it but nope nothing. If you followed me in to MVV you were elated if you followed me into you got nailed. In my case my bet on HGD was small and stopped out almost instantly.

Yes Pandora was the place to be I hope you backed up the truck like I did up over 5% in a week! Trim your positions here. 

But the truth is nothing has changed, we had a nasty pull back on Friday that made us all nervous. Trading volume was heavier than usual as Friday marked the event known as "quadruple witching," when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire on the same day. Trading increases as investors replace or repurchase existing contracts.

In addition to the quadruple witching, all three major U.S. stock indexes, as well as the FTSE and U.S. index trackers, rebal…

Sept 14 2013 Weekend Market Comment

Sept 14 2013 – Everything that was true last week is truer this week. Markets are gaining momentum and from a technical analysis stand we look in great shape. The Dow in the past week was up 3 percent, to 15,376, its second best week of the year. The S&P 500 was up 2 percent at 1687, its best week since July, and the Nasdaq was up 1.7 percent at 3722, despite a 6-percent decline in Apple. The stock market is trading as if Goldilocks is in charge, and the few bears left may be headed home soon.  In fact on September 11th I even put out a special posting announcing we have a “Green Arrow”! (as always click on graphic to enlarge)

I put out a Green Arrow on this graph when it appears we are in a confirmed upswing. This is 8 out of 10 times a great time to put new money to work and to move to risky assets like juiced ETF and volatile “high Beta” equities. Of course 2 out of 10 times you get your butt handed to you. I took off some conservative dividend ETF and traded them for MVV the j…

Sept 11 2013 Market Comment

Sept 11 2013 - Well we got a Green arrow today, and I backed the truck up to buy some fine stocks and the MVV index

Sept 7 2013 Weekend Market Comment

Sept 7 2013 – Well last week I pulled out all my basic broad market indicators and showed you that we were near a bottom and it looks like a bounce is coming but it is too soon to go “hog wild” . Well all of that advice is true this week too. There is not much point showing those graphs again, it’s the same story only a little better. However you might, like my little friend here, start to nibble a bit here.
So for this week I thought we would look at some “secondary” signs to see if this impending upturn is for real. Well the first thing you can do is compare conservative and speculative parts of the market. Both Real Estate RIETS and Utilities are under-performing in the current market. On the flip-side highly speculative areas like consumer discretionary and Semiconductors (computer chips), are doing very well. In fact the NASDAQ is leading the market and that has not been true for a while.

(as always, click any image to enlarge)

Chinese Fire Drill Speaking of chips, for many years…