Skip to main content

March 8, 2014 – Weekend Market Comment

March 8, 2014 – U.S. stocks staged a mixed finish Friday, with the S&P 500 ending at another record, as investors tracked the standoff in Ukraine and after February's jobs report indicated the harsh winter could be the culprit behind recent weakness in economic data.

Up for a fifth consecutive week, the Nasdaq fell 15.9 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,336.22, up 0.7 percent from the week-ago close.

I am concerned that this rally is getting long in tooth and stocks are overdue for a corrective period. First, let's consider the reasoning behind today's rally. Stocks were down on Monday because the markets were spooked by the situation in Ukraine. The first trading day of the month normally has a huge bullish bias, because fund managers typically put new month to work at the beginning of each month. Buyers held back on Monday because of the situation in Ukraine and this created pent-up demand, which was subsequently released on Tuesday.

Overall all indicators are positive, clearly the market is overbought, but that is a positive thing until it breaks down and you can never tell when that is. 

The NYSE Hi Lo Graph is looking very positive:

The Primary Sell model is looking strong:

The VIX or fear gauge is on a steady slow towards optimism:

The Green Arrow graph continues to climb:

TLT is continuing to sell off, indicating that hedge funds are rotating out of bonds and into equities.

If you want to worry about anything, look at NetSuite this week, this stock is held by a lot of funds and it tends to sell off as the rest of the market is peaking. 
I used a stop to get me out with a nice profit.

How to Play This.
Well you can ride it further, but this might also be a wise time to raise your stops and sell your biggest winners. You can always play something more conservative when overbought, for example DVY in place of some of the more volatile stocks.

Popular posts from this blog

Seven Wonders of CBC Decision Making

You gotta love this, in semi-socialist Canada we have a government run TV network – the CBC. Think PBS with poor content and a way bigger budget. They decided to run a contest to select the “7 Wonders of Canada”. The results are typical of what a CBC committee would do and it shows why crown corporations have no business competing in the entertainment business. Here is the web page:
Talk about the Seven Wonders of CBC decision making: Can you believe that through the power of politically correct committee-think -- a canoe and an igloo are "wonders" in Canada -- but the CN Tower, Cathedral Grove and the Bay of Fundy are not? A wonder is a place you can visit and feel awed by; what tourist would travel to Canada to see a canoe? I assure you I did not go to Egypt to see a felucca, I wanted to see Pyramids that touch the sky. The CBC decision-making process is typical of New Age thinking, where the overriding concern seems to be no…

November 26, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

November 26, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.

Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts

101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…

October 24, 2015 – Weekend Market Comment

October 24, 2015 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The Blah Blah Blah (courtesy of CNBC) Nasdaq closes at two-month high on tech surge. U.S. equities closed sharply higher Friday after the Chinese central bank cut interest rates and after three tech giants posted better-than-expected earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 157.54 points, or 0.9 percent, at 17,646.70, led higher by Microsoft and with Nike leading decliners. The S&P 500 ended 22.64 points higher, or 1.10 percent, at 2,075.15, with information technology leading six sectors higher as utilities led decliners. The technology sector also posted its first four-week winning streak since November. The Nasdaq closed up 111.81 points, or 2.27 percent, at 5,031.86. U.S. Treasury yields traded higher, …