Skip to main content

August 9, 2014 – Weekend Market Comment

August 9, 2014 – Stocks finish the Friday session and the week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their biggest one-day point and percentage gains since March 4. The major indexes all see weekly gains as Ukraine fears moved to the back burner. Investors on Friday proved that they have been a lot more worried about Ukraine and the potential for a deeper conflict between the West and Russia than they are about fresh U.S. military action in Iraq.

We have been in a corrective mode over the last two weeks, but I don’t think the geopolitical risks have become noticeably worse, and the earnings season, which should matter the most, has turned out to be good,

S&P 500 — up 22.01 points, or 1.2%, at 1,931.59. For the week, the S&P rises 0.3%. DJIA — up 185.66, or 1.1%, at 16,553.93. That leaves the Dow up 0.4% for the week after two consecutive weekly losses. Nasdaq Composite — up 35.93, or 0.8%, to 4,370.90, booking a 0.4% gain for the week.

That was a nice day Friday, but one day does not change a pattern that otherwise has been like driving off a cliff. Many of the indicators I am going to show you have hit the limits we expected, and next week they will either turn around as expected or this is being caused by something much bigger. From what I can see there is little on the horizon to ruin the party, so I do expect this to be the bottom. That said we don't bet money on hunches, lets see what Mr. Market has for us, there is lots of time to get in when the up turn is confirmed. 

Lets begin with the Long Term Bull and Bear Lines. This pattern could well end up like February 7th and as you can see, the slope indicator in the bottom window is down about where it often turns up. 

Here we have the NYSE High Low chart, again it could easily repeat what happened February 7th. 

Again some promising looking bottoming activity in the Primary Sell Indicator

The VIX (the fear gauge) looks like it has also hit the top of panic with a nice solid green peak in rsi in the top window.

Also the stocks over their 50 day moving average graph is looking like it has reached the extreme end of oversold. This is the point where often it must turn around. As you can see less than 25% of the stocks that make up the S & P 500 are above their 50 day moving average. 

So lets see next week if this is the bottom.

Popular posts from this blog

Seven Wonders of CBC Decision Making

You gotta love this, in semi-socialist Canada we have a government run TV network – the CBC. Think PBS with poor content and a way bigger budget. They decided to run a contest to select the “7 Wonders of Canada”. The results are typical of what a CBC committee would do and it shows why crown corporations have no business competing in the entertainment business. Here is the web page:
Talk about the Seven Wonders of CBC decision making: Can you believe that through the power of politically correct committee-think -- a canoe and an igloo are "wonders" in Canada -- but the CN Tower, Cathedral Grove and the Bay of Fundy are not? A wonder is a place you can visit and feel awed by; what tourist would travel to Canada to see a canoe? I assure you I did not go to Egypt to see a felucca, I wanted to see Pyramids that touch the sky. The CBC decision-making process is typical of New Age thinking, where the overriding concern seems to be no…

November 26, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

November 26, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.

Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts

101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…

October 24, 2015 – Weekend Market Comment

October 24, 2015 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The Blah Blah Blah (courtesy of CNBC) Nasdaq closes at two-month high on tech surge. U.S. equities closed sharply higher Friday after the Chinese central bank cut interest rates and after three tech giants posted better-than-expected earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 157.54 points, or 0.9 percent, at 17,646.70, led higher by Microsoft and with Nike leading decliners. The S&P 500 ended 22.64 points higher, or 1.10 percent, at 2,075.15, with information technology leading six sectors higher as utilities led decliners. The technology sector also posted its first four-week winning streak since November. The Nasdaq closed up 111.81 points, or 2.27 percent, at 5,031.86. U.S. Treasury yields traded higher, …