Skip to main content

October 25, 2014 – Weekend Market Comment

Yes I know this posting looks a bit odd but I am posting from my buddy Pepe`s mac notebook sitting in my friend Guy`s apartment in beautiful Bordeaux France and so you get what you get. Also this mac is set to Spanish so you are going to need to forgive me, my spell check is not functional and many buttons are a tad confusing.

Of course in the market we are having a nice bounce that you all  saw coming because I showed you that primary sell was bouncing off the bottom and VIX was way over sold. 

It all shows up in the charts

The VIX is returning to risk on mode with the insiders taking off insurance.

Many have asked if this is a real bounce or just a dead cat. To that I point out OBV that remains strong. The insiders are buying as long as this red line keeps up.

One thing that had me deeply worried was the the NYSE high low was so damaged, well this week back it jumped. We are well into all clear, risk on.

So are there any concerns? yes, it is true that small caps were lagging the market, this shows that the ´what the hell...take a flyer´ crowed is still afraid of the market, but even there we see signs of hope if the current bounce continues. Here is a graph comparing the 2000 smallest companies vs the dow 30 titans. Notice a bit of under performance in the last few days. 

To be fair there could be a small retrace here to base on the fact that we did have a pull-back Thursday and that the market has bounced up very hard off the bottom. 

Of course in my prior blog I mentioned some plays that are likely to do well this week including ULTA ALXN DPZ WFC ITC CP(Canadian) PGR IRM TRIP MFHI

Canadian retailer Dollerrama is still a great firm with an expanding price point as it move in to $3 goods and nibbles at WallMarts market

Of course I am still long Canadian Pipelines and Banks.

I did buy some Visa, a wonderful company that is like a sort of low risk world wide tax on all retail sales. Already up 5%!

Next week I am in Madrid and might consider playing an oversold bounce in Spanish super bank Santander. 

Spanish banks are in a sweet spot right now,funding costs are dropping and they are still managing to maintain asset yields. The recent Euro zone fear of more trouble in Greece and Spin has taken a big chunk out of value of what is in fact a well run bank. People do not understand there has been a steady improvement in the bad loan ratio since the financial crisis. Sure this is no class A bank like the Bank of Nova Scotia and Spain is not exactly thriving, but if you want to buy low, this bank is on sale. Lets say it looks like it suffered enough. 

I bought heavily but very defensively this week, selecting index funds like in Canada CDZ and in the USA SDY. The nice thing is these ETF funds are easy to buy and sell without moving the market and it does not take a lot of thinking, so I can get back to important things like enjoying France while meeting proprietors of Vineyards and sampling wine. 

Beautiful Chateau Pichon in longueville, a division of insurance juggernaut AXA.

You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.
You always can make any graphic larger, for a better look, by clicking on it.

Popular posts from this blog

Seven Wonders of CBC Decision Making

You gotta love this, in semi-socialist Canada we have a government run TV network – the CBC. Think PBS with poor content and a way bigger budget. They decided to run a contest to select the “7 Wonders of Canada”. The results are typical of what a CBC committee would do and it shows why crown corporations have no business competing in the entertainment business. Here is the web page:
Talk about the Seven Wonders of CBC decision making: Can you believe that through the power of politically correct committee-think -- a canoe and an igloo are "wonders" in Canada -- but the CN Tower, Cathedral Grove and the Bay of Fundy are not? A wonder is a place you can visit and feel awed by; what tourist would travel to Canada to see a canoe? I assure you I did not go to Egypt to see a felucca, I wanted to see Pyramids that touch the sky. The CBC decision-making process is typical of New Age thinking, where the overriding concern seems to be no…

November 26, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

November 26, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.

Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts

101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…

October 24, 2015 – Weekend Market Comment

October 24, 2015 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The Blah Blah Blah (courtesy of CNBC) Nasdaq closes at two-month high on tech surge. U.S. equities closed sharply higher Friday after the Chinese central bank cut interest rates and after three tech giants posted better-than-expected earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 157.54 points, or 0.9 percent, at 17,646.70, led higher by Microsoft and with Nike leading decliners. The S&P 500 ended 22.64 points higher, or 1.10 percent, at 2,075.15, with information technology leading six sectors higher as utilities led decliners. The technology sector also posted its first four-week winning streak since November. The Nasdaq closed up 111.81 points, or 2.27 percent, at 5,031.86. U.S. Treasury yields traded higher, …