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March 28, 2015 – Weekend Market Comment

March 28, 2015 – U.S. stocks closed mildly higher on Friday as investors digested Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remarks remained cautious ahead of first quarter earnings in April.

U.S. stocks closed mildly higher on Friday as investors digested Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remarks remained cautious ahead of first quarter earnings in April.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 34.43 points, or 0.19 percent, at 17,712.66, with Intel and UnitedHealth leading gains and Chevron the greatest laggard. The blue chip index fell 2.29 percent this week, for its worst week since Jan 30. The S&P 500 closed up 4.87 points, or 0.24 percent, at 2,061.02, with health care leading six sectors higher and energy the greatest laggard. The index closed down 2.23 percent for the week, its worst since the week ending January 30. The Nasdaq closed up 27.86 points, or 0.57 percent, to 4,891.22. The index closed down 2.69 percent for the week, its worst since the week ending October 10. Advancers were a step ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 386 million and a composite volume of about 1.9 billion at 2:38 p.m.



What I Think
I think the market is spooked that the fed is about to raise rates or worse that there may never be good times again as the US enters a lost decade like Japan. Fridays fed comment clearly bolstered the market and employment is strong, my bet is long term the bull continues. 

It All Shows Up In The Charts . . . 

Bull Bear Lines
Well the bounce back up is clear. As you can see this was a very rapid pull back. Volatility is making market timing difficult. Still dark green is over red, we are in a bull market.



Primary Sell 
Looks like we have an all clear sign from the pros who are again buying insurance. 



Aggressive Defensive Graph
Notice the topping and lagging defensive stocks are getting a run now. 




Bond vs Equities
Well Bonds held up well last week but the clear winner this week is equities. 




S&P500 Over 50 Day
Negative sentiment from last week is obvious that does not mean that that this week will not be good.



Green Arrow Graph
Our almost a green arrow turned into a failed rally



Nasdaq Summation
Tech is looking disappointing as fear alst week griped the markets.





NYSE New High Low
Strength returns to the big board as the upward march continues. 




Sectors
This chart mirrors what the Aggressive Defensive Chart says. The new trend is safer stocks like the defensive ETF. 
XLF - Financial Stocks - Dark Blue dots
QQQ - Nasdaq - Purple
XLY - Consumer discretionary - Green
XLU - Utilities - Red
DEF - Defensive stocks - Brown




OBV
On Balance Volume is keeping pace with the current market. A great relief as smart money returns to the market.



VIX
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 15.





Summary
We are still in a bull market and are about to complete a pull back. But the current volatility is making me use safer bets and be less aggressive. Until the trend is stronger I don't recommend any hero plays this well could be a long term topping pattern, although I doubt it. 



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.