Skip to main content

December 26, 2015 Weekend Market Comment

December 26, 2015 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

First off I hope you your family had a wonderful Christmas, I certainly did. In keeping with the spirit of  the holidays, lets be brief. It really was not much of week for the markets, they were up, but on very little volume. That means the data in our charts is not fully reliable, and could change abruptly.  Lets see what is in the charts.

101 Bull Bear
Bear market (red over dark green) and now the short term (light green) is in a nice bounce up.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
In the right side highlight we see green is below yellow this is the number on reason I am pulling in my horns. There is recovery on the way but it could disappear in a hurry. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs!

107 Industrial Production
Not good. Watch this carefully, all recessions have falling industrial production, but data is from the end of Nov.

115 Renko
Three black down bricks the trend is broken and heading down.
203 OBV
Notice the pros were not playing this week. Red line fails to keep up - watch out.
207 VIX
VIX shows a little egg nog and rum will make you bold. The fear gage retreated to under 16.

209 VIX Evaluator
Mehh, sideways.

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 50% stocks are above their 50day MA. Encouraging, the rally might be more than just 8 stocks this time. 

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
A turn up but not a green arrow.

301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq showing recovery.
303 Aggressive Defensive
Heading firmly into aggressive mode.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Disturbing, the consumer is lagging. Bonds are in an uptick.

307 Bond Direction
Short term buying.

309 Sectors
All sectors mildly up, except the consumer is being taken out to the woodshed. I think some naught MBA boys missed their Christmas sales projections.

311 Nations
Looks like international stronger, but really is just the last hold out USA, now heading south. Abandon all hope global sell off

313 Major sectors
I got nothing here!

 ! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.

What I Find Interesting

The price of oil continues to drop and most hydrocarbons like Natural Gas are falling too. Here is a graphic showing you what liquids cost.

Crime and Punishment
For Christmas how about a distraction from the markets. One of my favorite little known movies was a film called Falcon and the Snowman. It was about two young American middle class boys selling secrets to the USSR. The interesting feeling is one of wanting to yell at the characters to stop -- you knew all along they were bound to be caught.  For a similar feeling, read this new story in Wired magazine (in two parts) about the busting of the founder of Silk Road the online drug marketplace. Fascinating reading.

What I Think
I think you must be careful with a week like we just had with volume that low all most anything can happen. Technical analysis is like a windsock, and with no breeze it does not tell you much. It is still a bear market, as I went over in last week's comment. In a bear market you should expect bearish outcomes. Sell the peeks, avoid the high flyers.

All the best for 2016.

You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.