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January 9, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

January 9, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/.  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

If you read my market comment last week you know you and I are now short this bear market. My pockets are full of gains and your should be too. Feel free to thank me. This was the largest sell off to start a year in history. All three major index are in officially in a correction.


The Wilshire 5000 is now back to where it was in Oct 2014. Yikes!





101 Bull Bear
Bear market (red over dark green) and it is nasty… good thing you were warned.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
In the right side highlight we see green is below yellow this is the number on reason I was so sceptical of this market, once again market breadth was the clue to run. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But this is a lagging indicator and I think once we look beyond Christmas rush jobs expect to see this fall apart. 

107 Industrial Production
Not good. Watch this carefully, all recessions have falling industrial production, but data is from the end of Nov.

115 Renko
Six black down bricks the trend is broken and heading down, fast.

203 OBV
The pros are still in as the market falls. Red line fails to keep up - watch out.
!
207 VIX
VIX is the fear gage .. well 27 is numbers like we saw in 2008…that is not fear that is all out panic.

209 VIX Evaluator
Clearly trouble

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now only 12% of stocks are above their 50day MA. Total dispair but perhaps over done … dead cat bounce next week?. 

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
nasty.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq full panic.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Very defensive possible bounce in a week or two.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Disturbing, the consumer is lagging. Bonds are in an huge uptick.

307 Bond Direction
Short term buying.

309 Sectors
Nothing here but panic.

311 Nations
Global sell off

313 Major sectors
I got nothing here!

 ! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
Borrowed money from China lines corrupt official's pockets and is being turned in to western real estate. Read about it in Forbes

and
The New York times



What Works Now
Same as last week, short anything


What I Think

Well I said last week we were in for trouble and boy did we get it. I would not be at all surprised with a "dead cat" bounce next week, but make no mistake we are in a strong downtrend.



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.



Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


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CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



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