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April 9, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

April 9, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

CLICK HERE: To See the 100 and 200 series charts

101 Bull Bear
Bull market (Dark Green over red). I have little faith in this bull and still expect it to dies in May. Bull Market = Bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but strength.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But this is a lagging indicator. 
107 Industrial Production
Not good. Watch this carefully, all recessions have falling industrial production, but this data is from the end of February. I see a clear round top in the 12 period moving average

115 Renko
Obviously – 8 white up bricks trend is heading up. Clearly we have come a long way back. Hard to be a bear in an up trend this obvious

203 OBV
Pros are with this market volume holds!
207 VIX
VIX is the fear gage ... 15.3 and rising. Notice what often happens when the top panel CCI is in the oversold brown zone, it often is the start of a rise in VIX and in this case that would mean the end of the bounce. Be ready to play your short plays.

209 VIX Evaluator
Heading sideways clearly. Caution, market direction changing now!!.

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now 84.6% of stocks are above their 50day MA. This has been perking up since last week. The heard is spooked.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
TRIX has crossed signalling a possible green arrow in the future?.
Notice the slope is loosing momentum.
No sign of a green arrow..

301 NASDAQ Summation
Finally a toping a roll over, end of the strong up trend? NASDAQ looks strong but over bought here.
303 Aggressive Defensive
Finally a toping a roll over, end of the strong up trend? Looks like this is the turn!

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Consumer still steady. Bonds bottom. TLT has done well this week.

307 Bond Direction
Short-term bonds rise in a strong long term up trend.

309 Sectors
Defensives and Utilities lead in a mostly sideways chart.

311 Nations

313 Major sectors
Some recent signs of life in commodities.

 ! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.

What I Find Interesting
You might have heard of the private company SpaceX trying to do what NASA does for a profit and for lower cost. 
Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company. It was founded in 2002 by former PayPal entrepreneur and Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk with the goal of creating the technologies to reduce space transportation costs and enable the colonization of Mars. 

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft returned to flight Friday with the CRS-8 resupply mission to the International Space Station: a mission which also carries a prototype inflatable module for the outpost. The first Dragon mission since a launch failure last June, Friday’s mission lifted off from Cape Canaveral at 16:43 EDT (20:43 UTC), followed by a historic first stage landing on a drone ship at sea. Click the pic below to watch video of the landing, it is so slick it looks more like CGI animation than the real thing. 

What Works Now

The Casino stocks first took a hit because of Vegas in the 2008 recession, but they mostly had operations in Macau that were booming. Then as China unwound these stock got hit again. In a case of be in early on what is turning around. Casino stocks are jumping. 

Here is Wynn resorts (ticker:WYNN)

When things get rough, people turn to gold. Recently rising again. 

What I Think

Well the Bull Bear lines are green but otherwise things still look like they would rather sell off. Here is a long term vs of the S&P 500 notice how from a big picture level, the roll over is obvious.

Bond traders love profits and hate losses. So when times are good they load up on High Yield debt which pays better. As the Bond traders sense trouble they run to U.S. treasuries. In this chart a rising line shows junk bond selling well right up to 2014, then a change as the last few years the market readies for trouble.  Here we see its right now all about safety. 

Same advice as last week, pros might want to try and catch a downturn with a short position such as (ticker: MYY) or short junk bonds (ticker:SJB) for the rest consider, long gold (ticker:GLD), long US treasuries (ticker: TLT) and good old cash or money market funds. 

You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.