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June 18, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

June 18, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is leading up. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. This is the number on reason I am still seeing possible upside.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Not good. Watch this carefully, all recessions have falling industrial production, new data is from the end of March, looking worse.
115 Renko
A new down black brick, nothing but strength for weeks has ended. .
203 OBV
CAUTION: OBV says pros are not with this market as volume falls. .
207 VIX
VIX shows falling uncertainty now below 20 again. Could be the end of the cycle of fear, notice cci looks likes it topped for now.

209 VIX Evaluator
Still says dangerous odds are things getting worse..

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 53% stocks are above their 50day MA.MACD (top window) say more pain to come?

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
Well declining interest in broad market is showing a bit in the 20-day slope (top panel).  .

301 NASDAQ Summation
Nothing but weakness here.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Defensive but could be the end of the cycle.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds way overbought consume fuddles along..

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds indicates overall market caution. .

309 Sectors
Defensive staple stocks like dividends, utilities are strong but the consumer is rising. Financials are rising. On tech is falling as investors avoid the overbought.

311 Nations
A look like international stronger, but the mix moves here from growth countries to stable Europe.

313 Major sectors
Gold and commodities shine things look good for Canada!

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.

What I Find Interesting
According to Bloomberg AirBnB just raised another billion in debt. Apartment-sharing startup Airbnb Inc has secured a $1 billion debt facility from some big U.S. banks to aid its new services and finance its expansion plans, a source close to the company said. 

Airbnb is an online rental service that enables people to list, find, and rent vacation homes. It is an online marketplace for vacation rentals that charges a fee for connecting users with property to rent with users looking to rent the property. It has over 1,500,000 listings in 34,000 cities and 191 countries. 

Past funding . . .
As of July 2011, the company had raised US$119.8 million in venture funding from Y Combinator, Greylock Partners, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Digital Sky Technologies, General Catalyst Partners[47] and undisclosed amounts from Youniversity Ventures partners Jawed Karim, Keith Rabois, and Kevin Hartz,[48] and from A Grade Investments partners Ashton Kutcher and Guy Oseary.

In April 2014, the company closed on an investment of $450 million by TPG Capital at a valuation of approximately $10 billion.[49]

As of March 2015, Airbnb is raising a new round of funding that will place the company at a $20 billion valuation.[50]

In 2015, Airbnb raised $1.5 billion in funding led by growth equity firm General Atlantic, and joined by Hillhouse Capital Group, Tiger Global Management, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, GGV Capital, China Broadband Capital, and Horizon Ventures.[51]

Not publicly traded yet . . .

What Works Now

What I Think
I think we had a little sell off and probably from here we bounce up. If you look at the CCI on our 207 VIX chart this is normal as far as fear goes. That said the OBV chart is diverging and some of the worst sell offs start that way. So I sugest going long in broad safe indexes like (ticker:DVY) and buying Gold (ticker: GLD) and set your stops tight and wait and see what the market gives you.

and have a happy Father's Day . . .

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