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August 13, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

August 13, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well the summer rally continues with a much needed small pull back Friday. 






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
 !
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Bullish

115 Renko
Nothing but strength.
 !
203 OBV
OBV is still with market. Bullish.
 !
207 VIX
VIX should bounce about this red line for a while but very bullish for now, could even head in to a new range.

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength.
 !
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 71% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 73.4%. Strength.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
flat


301 NASDAQ Summation
After a little pause, nothing but strength here. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
First sign of troubles as defensive regain a lead.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds flat, but consumer has small uptick Bullish.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break

309 Sectors
Its all about tech as the Nasdaq sweeps ahead.

311 Nations
International has small down tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.

313 Major sectors
U.S. equities are the only game in town.


! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.







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What I Think

Bull rages on. Except for a starting rotation in the aggressive defensive chart all looks very strong. At best you might talk about overbought, but that can go on a long time. 

Canada is looking stronger even as the emerging markets corrected ever so slightly this week. Wednesday oil surge 6% as the bottom looks to be in for now.





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Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.


Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…