August 20, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).It is the 200th Market Comment, can you believe I have posted the same 18 charts now for almost about 4 years and you have been reading them?
CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts
101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.
105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.
107 Industrial Production
Nothing but strength.
OBV is still with market. Bullish.
VIX should bounce about this red line for a while but very bullish for now, could even head in to a new range. WOW
209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength.
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 68.6% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 71%. Strength.
213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. Notice the trix converge... danger?
CLICK HERE: To see the 300 series charts
301 NASDAQ Summation
After a little pause, nothing but strength here.
303 Aggressive Defensive
First sign of troubles as defensive regain a lead.
305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds flat, but consumer has small uptick Bullish.
307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break
Its all about tech as the Nasdaq sweeps ahead. Expect Nasdaq stocks to loose steam soon.
International has small down tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.
313 Major sectors
|U.S. equities are the only game in town.|
What I Find Interesting
China's Triple Bubble.
- Beijing’s official National Bureau of Statistics appears to be posting fantasy numbers.
- Credit creation during the just-completed quarter was more than twice that in the previous quarter
What Works Now
Copart the leader in auto recycler and auction-services provider turned in double-digit revenue and earnings growth. This makes two quarters in a row of solid revenue growth after a sales stall in late-2014 through 2015. Management doesn't appear ready to rest on this rebound, with the company continuing to invest in more capacity.
The maker of those super popular small business pointment of sale system. If you are wishing you bought Facebook at $35 this is your chance to get in, buy and hold this for a few years and hope for 10 to 1. Click here for chart
Bull rages on. Except for a starting rotation in the aggressive defensive chart all looks very strong. At best you might talk about overbought, but that can go on a long time.
It is true things are moving a bit sideways after a strong run and I would have a long look at the green arrow chart, notice the trix converging? This might be the end of the summer rally?