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September 03, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

September 3, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Yes I am posting this late, I am in Europe enjoying the sun. 

101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up, but overall we still are flat. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production

115 Renko
Nothing but strength. Up for months now.
203 OBV
OBV is slightly lagging the market, too soon to worry but keep an eye on this. 
207 VIX
VIX in a classic up down right in time with the CCI indicator. 

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength. But could this be a flatting for a turn?

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 61% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly up from last week 58%. Positive turning point?

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. Could be a set up next week for a green arrow. 

301 NASDAQ Summation
NASDAQ is near record highs but as you can see the breadth is deteriorating.

303 Aggressive Defensive
back to risk on, bullish mode.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds drop, consumer flat, not great. Mixed signals here.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break

309 Sectors
Tech and banks lead. Expect new interest in defensives. 

311 Nations
International has an up tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.

313 Major sectors
rotation out of U.S. equities in to commodities and other countries. 

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.

What I Find Interesting

Libor is the global rate banks charge each other for overnight borrowing, as trust drops, especially in Europe, the rate climbs. We have not seen Libor climb like this in a while, and it could indicate trouble ahead. Now I did not say run or even sell, this is a very manipulated market, but it bears watching. Banks loosing faith in each other is a large part of the 2007/2008 financial crises. The final window of this chart shows Short Junk bonds, until this climbs chances are the financial system is not in danger. 

What Works Now
Cypress Semiconductor is in talks for a private buy out. Also the firm has really good revenue gowth. 

What I Think
I think this is a heck of a bull market, look at the renko chart and you see in general it has been a steady climb, right now we are in a rut, but with the bull bear lines calling for a bull market you must stay positive. 

September is historicly one of the strongest months, or the other hand the worst sell offs in history began in October. So stay possitive and alert. 

You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.

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