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November 19, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

November 19, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well the rally continues and we are in a new era of risk on.





Lets see what is in the charts this week:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average has begun to rise up. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow look at this take off.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Could be turning up again, if not expect rally to fail.

115 Renko
Market is rebounding 6 white bricks! BULLISH!
!
203 OBV
OBV (red line) is NOT with the market. clear down trend. This means the big funds are not participating. Tread carefully -- Not wonderful.

207 VIX
Ahh fear subsides. ccci says perhaps done for now. Bullish

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now 59% stocks are above their 50day MA, way up from last week when it was 54%. Bullish.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says things might be safe soon. Notice how this was a great early warning.  Still Bearish!

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
New happy days, breadth returns to Nasdaq expect a bounce up! Bullish
!
303 Aggressive Defensive
Now topping out perhaps the best of the move is over. Very Bullish!

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds tank. Consumer flat, perhaps ready for a run for Christmas?  Bullish

307 Bond Direction
Weakness in bonds indicates overall market caution of coming rate hikes.

309 Sectors
Consumer rise! Banks love rate hikes. Bullish.

311 Nations
Canada has a come back! The Economist Magazine declares Canada the new leader of the free world.

313 Major sectors
Canada again on the rise.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
Thanks to Ralph Nader also many laws and law suits cars are safer than ever. But as the Statista web site shows more people now are dying of drugs that car crashes. Methamphetamine and Fentanyl are a scourge on our streets. Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid analgesic that is similar to morphine but is 50 to 100 times more potent. Read more about the problem in Vancouver on the CBC web site.

 
What Work Now
Well this is an odd one since it is more like what does not work now. But with impending rate hikes coming soon U.S. Treasuries have been in a sell off. (Ticker:TLT) but you can get an inverse ETF for treasuries (Ticker:TBT)
 

What I Think

I think we are in a bull market, perhaps overbought but since July safe stocks like utilities are are down 11%, risky financials  are up 20% and super safe bonds (Ticker:TLT) are the lowest since January. That is a risk on environment, people are taking chances again. Yes we might pull back a bit early next week but expect this trend to be in last for a while. After all with yields so bad in Treasuries what is left but stocks?  The only kill joy is that falling OBV line. The Dow was the first to rocket after the election and the other indexes started following suit only a day or two later. Notice, price is trending higher, but volume is not. The OBV is indicative of this as it began to flatten out almost immediately. That is your warning not to run away, but to be on alert.


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Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.


Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…

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