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January 07, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 07, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled on Thursday, dropping more than 8 basis points to close at 2.37% - its lowest daily close since December 7th's 2.35% finish.  The sudden interest in treasuries could have been the result of a weaker-than-expected monthly ADP employment report, or perhaps the awful retail news from both Kohls (KSS) and Macy's (M).  Then come Friday the market roared ahead in the final hours - the lesson here, bull market expect bullish outcomes.


Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Beginning to be disturbing -- manufacturing is lagging.  Could this be the first canary in a coal mine signal?

115 Renko
Market is strong lucky 12 white bricks! You seldom see a run this long, but who knows how far this bull can run. Notice how it is obvious on a Renko chart. SUPER BULLISH!
!
203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite year end profit taking the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down... Notice the last two weeks of September, when the bears got trounced by Trump. For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish. 2016 was a mostly up market years.

!
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 81% of stocks are above their 50day MA, way up from last week when it was 66%. Bullish.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq breadth stalls.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Very Aggressive. Bullish upswing for new year.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds up. Consumer deflating? Bearish

307 Bond Direction
Bonds look better.
!
309 Sectors
Ahh financials fade defensives lead and tech too? Bizzar.

311 Nations
Third world perks up.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
Why sugar is killing you:



 

What Works Now

I have been very worried about US manufacturing, and happy to see a good run on an auto stock since last fall. Fiat Chrysler (Ticker:FCAU)




A Reader Asked
A reader of this blog told me they really don't want to read all this stuff, please pick out a few stocks for them. My only advise to others is simple, only use money you can risk and purchase broad market indexes like the S & P 500 (Ticker:SPY) when the bull bear lines say it is a bull market, sell when it is not.  Outside of that, I have no targeted advice for anyone


I don't want to manage your money, I am busy managing mine. If I ever want to be a money manager there is a few very generous offers, at a few major investment banks in Toronto, New York and London that I can take anytime. Unlike this person, they will pay very well for my advice. I also know I could start a hedge fund and listen to clients belly ache on months that I miss my performance, or run like rats every downturn, but I don't need the grief. This blog is not advise, it is my own market analysis for me, read the first paragraph above You are welcome to look here and see what I do, otherwise, I just really don't care. 

If you are busy, or don't understand this stuff, or just want someone to manage your money -- there are rafts of these people and they are not hard to find, go talk to them.



What I Think
Well like I said last week, it looked a lot like tax selling end of year and the bull would continue once the year flipped over. So it goes. But I also said this might well be the last year of the bull, the big factor will be China, I am sure you all read my post on China and what the issue is. 


2016 was a near record year for my portfolio performance, I now need to spend a bit of that to help the global economy. I am in Cuba next weekend, as I work my way to my winter home in Belize.  I expect to have not enough internet connectivity to post next week... you are on you own. 





You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here




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Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.


Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…