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January 21, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 21, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well as you know I could not get enough bandwidth last week to post my comments but nothing much happened anyway. The market is in a sideways trading range. However next week might be much more interesting...

Here is what our charts say:

101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
End of the big march forward, 12 bircks up and one new black brick retreat. BEARISH!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite sidways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 71% of stocks are above their 50day MA,  down from last week when it was 77%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

301 NASDAQ Summation
ALERT: Nasdaq breath decline... don't panic but this is not a good sign. Notice the green is way below red, as only the top hot stocks are still in play. 

303 Aggressive Defensive

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.

What I Find Interesting
The number of shorts on the VIX is near a record. When everyone bets on one crowded trade that is generaly trouble. In this case the pros are betting on an ever rising stock market. This bull run is 8 years long, so it is a bit concerning when no one sees any chance of it ending. 

What Works Now


What I Think

Well I think the Trump rally has run its course and consloidation shows we are ready for a rest. However, the old axiom "Buy the roumor, sell the news" comes to mind and now that Mr. Trump is the new "leader of the free world" I expect Monday to be profit taking time. 

You will note only one red ! this week and it is the Nasdaq breadth... this can be a way early signal so dont panic, but it is concerning when money moves to defense and that is what this graph signals. Also notice gold is accumulating. 

However, we are in a bull market, and always expect bullish outcomes. That means as we have for weeks, be defensive not short or flat. Raise stops, sell your high flyers, be conservative. 

You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.

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