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January 28, 2017 – Weeken Market Comment

January 28, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

After weeks of close calls, the Dow made history on Wednesday by blowing past that key level for the first time ever. The Dow climbed 156 points to 20,069 and was joined in record territory by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  The historic milestone leaves the Dow up more than 1,700 points since President Donald Trump's victory in November. The achievement is evidence of how optimistic investors have become about the prospects for the U.S. economy.

Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
The big march forward, 12 bricks up !

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is less happy. But a day or two does not make a trend. Yes despite sideways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 69% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  down a tad from last week when it was 71%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Looks like it might get more stable.  

303 Aggressive Defensive
Peaking might be getting defensive soon.. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold. World trade looks better with British American trade deal talk.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
According to theAtlas.com Americans are importing more veggies. You could hope this just means there is an increase in salad consumption, but I think it has more to do with less people interested in farming. As global standards of living increase the appeal of farming decreases. Also with less migrant labour in the US farming basic commodities becomes impractical. 


Time Crystals

Check out this amazing discovery of a new kind of matter, in ScienceAlert.


What Works Now

Short Bonds, the TBT ETF is an easy way to short US treasuries. 



What I Think

So once again despite record low VIX readings and all the rest the market roared ahead with the DOW in new record territory. If you were following what I did last week you stayed long because this is a bull market. 

So it is DOW 20,000 and the white house has a new resident. Many are wondering if there is any news next to carry this market. 


So I am now a week in Belize, and as I sip coffee at my desk I wonder should I write more about the markets or go enjoy the sun..... see ya next week :)






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Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.


Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…