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February 18, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

February  18, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).


U.S. equities closed mixed on Friday, but managed another record close, while investors kept an eye on France's presidential election. Investors right now continue to shrug off almost all bearish news and continue buying stocks

Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be starting another long ride up.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
A one brick pull back and now two new up!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is with the market. Bullish!

207 VIX
Fear is way down, in fact to all time new levels.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 76% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  up from last week when it was 70%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon. Notice loss of TRIX momentum.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Wow new interest in tech! Looks bullish.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Aggressive is back in style. Perhaps peaking but who knows.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer stalls? Bullish 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and flatline. 

309 Sectors
Nasdaq zooms ahead, banks stall.

311 Nations
not much here

313 Major sectors
not much here -- all about the USA.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
The Indonesian government is still among a handful of nations, along with Somalia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, that has yet to ratify the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.



Since 2000 smokers in Indonesia have grown from 40 million to 70 million. The worlds fastest growing tobacco market has no limits on advertising and stores sell Marlboro cigarettes for pennies a piece often in stores next to schools. Marlboro through its lobby stooge groups is hyping smoking as a human right and the U.S. government still treats tobacco as a key American Interest product and so pushes tiny nations to accept the deadly habit in trade for favours and considerations.

What Works Now

NASDAQ Pharma companies... just look at Sage Therapeutics (Ticker:SAGE)



What I Think
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett


With the current fire lit under the Equities markets and no fire truck in sight, it seems that everyone is unabashedly bullish. Various breadth indicators including the Net New Highs, the Advance Decline lines, the McClellan Summation Indexes, the Volume Summation Indexes, Bullish Percent Indexes, and the Percent of stocks above the 200 DMA are all screamingly bullish. While the market soars, these charts continue to support the data. 

Of course there will be an end to this someday, but you can never say how soon. For now be long, be aggressive and like last week, continue to reap rewards. It is a bull market expect bullish outcomes.



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

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Yet another parabolic up week for the markets. Honestly folks valuations are really stretched here. The air is so thin at this altitude. Then again the markets can and do (on a short term basis) anything they want. Still I would expect a little pull-back in the next two weeks.


Lets see what is in the charts this week:

CLICK HERE: To see the 100 and 200 series charts



101 Bull Bear Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Also note the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a new long term uptrend.Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes…

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